The next President of Europe

[imomus]

One of the best pieces of news this month was that, after meeting with Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy withdrew his (crucial) support for Tony Blair to become the next President of Europe. Why? Because of Blair's support for the Iraq war, apparently, and Britain's failure to adopt the euro and join the Schengen zone of passport-free travel.

So who should become the next president of Europe? Perhaps it should be Barack Obama. He's already won the hearts and minds of this continent. And if Brian Eno, talking to Wired last week, is to be believed, Obama has little chance of becoming president of the US.

Why?

"I'm sorry to say that I think America isn't quite there yet," Eno tells Wired. Here's his thinking. It makes worrying reading, because Eno has very often been right, including the last time he predicted a Democrat wouldn't win.

Wired: "You won a $500 Long Bet with Stewart Brand (in 2002) that by August 2005, a Democrat would not be president of the US. Would you be willing to go double or nothing that by August 2009 a Dem will be president of the US? Why or why not?"

Eno: "I would bet the same again this time. I feel that the Rightists in America have almost complete media dominance — and are prepared to play as dirty as they need. They would be very happy with Clinton as the Democratic candidate because they know exactly how to slice her to pieces. A Clinton candidature means a Republican presidency, as far as I can see. Obama is more of a problem, because nobody hates him (as they do Clinton) and indeed a lot of people are genuinely inspired by him. So his candidacy will require the very dirtiest of dirty tricks, and I have no doubt they'll sink to the challenge."

"In 2002, I felt that it was important for the Republicans to win. Kerry did not strike me as a charismatic candidate, and I felt that whoever took the presidency next would get blamed for the complete cock-up that Bush and his team had started. If Kerry had won, he and the Democrats would now be getting the blame for the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan and the collapse of your economy. This would have given the Republicans 25 years of dominance — as they would continue to point back at Iraq, etc. and say, "That's what the Democrats will do for you." So it seemed to me important that Bush take the can for all that, since it was directly the result of his policies. I imagined that the resulting disillusionment with Bush and the Bushmen would open the way for a new broom — I was at that time hoping it would be Hillary Clinton. I thought the change of a mood in the country would enable her to take a strongly liberal position and not have to apologize for it. She hasn't done that, because she dare not. She knows the knives are out for any sign on her part that she'll be "softer" than McCain — because she's trying to play him at his own game, instead of coming up with a different one."

"As it turns out, it's Obama who is playing the different game. I hope that he will be the Democratic candidate. I would be thrilled if he became the president. However, I think he will be cut to ribbons by the most disgraceful campaign any of us will ever have witnessed. He has to be discredited, and he will be, somehow. And I worry that the American people will complain about it and then swallow it as they swallowed the fraudulent election of Bush. So, no, I wouldn't bet on a Democrat being president. I dearly wish that would be the case — either Obama or Clinton — but I'm sorry to say that I think America isn't quite there yet. It may require another four years of collapse and chaos under another Republican administration."

As dearly as Eno hopes he's wrong about this, I hope he's wrong about this. And as avidly as Eno supports Obama, I support Obama. But I've learned that most Americans (most British, for that matter, or certainly English) think differently from me in matters like this, and that just because I think a politician's views are sane and reasonable, it doesn't follow that they'll see things the same way. Here in continental Europe, though, we like Obama. Should he fail in his bid to become US president, he should come and do the job over here. It would be a step up, not down; after all, we in the European Union are considerably richer and more than twice as populous (728 million versus 300 million) than the US. What's more, we're a lot better educated than the average American, which is probably why we're more likely to agree with Obama's policies than his fellow countrymen are.

If Eno is right and America "isn't ready yet" for an Obama presidency, well, Europe is. You Americans just haven't earned him, and don't deserve anyone quite that good anyway, the way you've been behaving this decade. So, ladies and gentlemen, I give you... the next President of the United States of Europe!

Comments

[electricwitch.livejournal.com]

lol, oh Eno. In hindsight I should have let Cale top you.

[dabroots.livejournal.com]

Cale should hit Eno over his shiny head with an electric viola for his undue pessimism.

[sirwilliam.livejournal.com]

The republicans will use gender roles. They always use gender to attack their opponents. It's a simple, effective, and dirty tactic that never seems to get old, because it taps into a deep-seated American fear of sexuality. If it's Clinton they will turn her into a ball-busting lesbian. If it's Obama they will turn him into a youthful pansy. Maureen Dowd (http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4176/is_20061214/ai_n16906504) already began the processin the new York Times by calling Obama "Obambi" while a Washington Post editorial described a mythical lip-to-lip kiss (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/16/AR2008051603275.html?hpid=opinionsbox1) with Edwards (the "Breck Girl")

The Daily Howler (http://dailyhowler.com/) illustrates these tactics in great detail.

[kementari2.livejournal.com]

Ageism is a bigger factor than sexism or racism. In a poll taken about a year ago before it was clear who the candidates might be, 48 percent of those surveyed said they were less likely to support a candidate in his or her 70s because of his or her age, versus 11 percent who said they were less likely to support a female candidate because of her sex and 4 percent who said they were less likely to support an African American candidate because of his or her race (Article (http://www.newsweek.com/id/106672)).

[kingfuraday.livejournal.com]

I'll be voting for Obama and I think Eno is wrong this time around. We're more than ready for an end to the Bushmen...

[lupoleboucher.livejournal.com]

Eno has it backwards: Clinton is a far more electable Democratic candidate than Obama. At least she can drink corn whiskey with heartlanders. Obama seems like he's only comfortable around people who went to grad school; and Americans hate egg heads and people who know what arugula is. Personally, I don't care who wins this time around -they're all centrists: the only real difference anyone will be able to discern will be in supreme court appointees.

[19091977.livejournal.com]

Eno is so full of shit. So is whoever writes this blog. Clinton can win because she has power behind her. She's part of the machinery. So is Obama, so is McCain. I don't care who wins this time either for the same reason. Personally, i think Bush & co. should attack Europe because of Brian Eno & his poncey twaddle.

[kumakouji.livejournal.com]

Given a choice, I'd pick Obama, but in regards to policy there's very little difference between these two candidates. Sure, Hilary voted in favor of the war but what's most important right now is the direction these presidents plan to take America in the future, and from what I can see they're both pretty much headed down the same path.

For this reason, I don't really care much who gets in, as long as it's a democrat. I think people who really, really give a shit are either a) overstating one past decision or b) care too much about triviality like the fact he's black or that he has charisma.

[dmt81.livejournal.com]

So many of us would give so much to see Eno wrong here. The stakes are high and Eno isn't the first to voice these fears. It will be a tough fight. I'm quite pessimistic as well. But the fact still remains that Obama DOES inspire people. I can't remember the last time this country was so charged and exited about any one political figure!

At least in the USA. My beloved Mexico has been roiling with delicious & charismatic battles for years.

If Obama gets the Democratic nomination, we're halfway there.

[daki.livejournal.com]

I want Eno to be wrong. I've been pushing for Obama this entire process and hope he gets the nod. That said, I would jump across the ocean in a heartbeat if he were made President of the EU.

[newironshapes (from livejournal.com)]

america's ideological programming, going back to the source, is just bad. it will probably take quite a constellation of crises for them to pick someone who doesn't fit the bill. maybe they are getting there right now.

last time i was back in the US, it was quite a somber feeling. i didn't see nearly as many new US flags having sprouted up, and in fact chicago was full of colourful ads for its olympics campaign, which made no reference to any immediately discernible american theme.

have you looked over obama's policies? they aren't quite as radically unamerican as you might think. no universal healthcare program, support for the death penalty, etc. the "netroots" in the US was pretty solidly behind john edwards, slickly reborn as a campaigner against the growing wealth inequality there and who actually had a universal-ish health plan. obama seemed to me like yet another triumph of style over substance.

ultimately we're not electing a president to be black or to be a woman, but to do things. but since the EU presidency stands not to be that powerful anyway, obama might be rather perfect for the role after he loses in the US.

[wildbirdcall.livejournal.com]

The Republican party is ailing, to my delight. If ever he had a chance, it'd be now. Bush has the lowest ratings of any president, ever. I really think it can happen.

GDP

[(Anonymous)]

The US has a substantially higher GDP per capita than the EU taken as a whole. EU is about $30,000, US is around $45,000.

I think Europe wins on actual *quality* of life, but I'm afraid that even with its economy in the hole, the average US-ian is still richer.

Also: I'm an Obama supporter, but: Hillary would have a better chance of winning in the general election. And McCain is so much better than Bush it's not even funny. No matter who wins we're going to be in a much better position. I'm not sure I trust McCain to not appoint idiots, though.

Re: GDP

[sirwilliam.livejournal.com]

GDP doesn't translate directly to personal income. In 2006 median household income in the UK was around £24,000, or $47,000, while median household income in the US was $48,000.

Even compared to the continent I'm not sure the US actually is richer. Those GDP figures do not reflect the cost of health care, which is running about $3,500 per year, or the additional cost of retiring in a country with no social net, among other things. And while we usually have larger houses, with the impending (or current) peak oil problems I'm not sure it's a net positive to live far from work.

I suspect it's a wash between the richer parts of the EU and the United States. The United States has a long history of reinvention so I wouldn't dismiss it in the long run - and if the Gulf Stream is shut down due to global warming I certainly wouldn't want to live in Vladivostok, Surrey!

[bugpowered.livejournal.com]

Obama? We don't need no stinkin' Obama [here in ole E.U]. While probably good for America at the moment, we need someone more refined and more socialist.

Actually, we don't need a stinkin' E.U president altogether. Not until the E.U is restructured to operate democratically, and not in an opaque, bureaucratic way that favors coalitions of power and under the table deals. As it is now, it's a joke —on par with Bush's America.

On the other hand, regarding Obama vs. Clinton, we might be betting on the wrong horse. Here's something I read from a U.S journalist I respect:

Two years ago, Illinois residents were furious when they discovered that Exelon Corporation “had not disclosed leaks at one of its nuclear plants.”

Obama swiftly introduced a bill in the Senate “to require all plant owners
to notify state and local authorities immediately of even small leaks… Mr. Obama [who,
according his website, favors nuclear power] eventually rewrote [the bill] to reflect
changes sought by Senate Republicans, Exelon, and nuclear regulators.” No longer did
the bill require notification. It “simply offered guidance to regulators…”

“In interviews over the past two weeks, Obama aides insisted that the revisions did not substantially alter the bill. In fact, it was left drastically different… giving the nuclear commission two years to come up with its own regulations… [and saying] that the commission shall
‘consider’ – not require – immediate public notification… The rewritten bill also
contained… new wording sought by Exelon to make it clear that state and local
authorities would have no regulatory oversight over nuclear power plants.” Obama caved
to the nuke industry. Don’t be too shocked. Exelon employees have contributed $227,000
to Obama’s campaigns. Exelon’s executive vice president, one of its directors, and its
CEO are “among his largest fund-raisers.”

Oh, and there’s this: fortunately, the Excelon-written bill died in the Senate, and Obama
certainly knows that, but in his Iowa campaign he not only claimed to have passed the bill,
he implied that he passed the original bill! (Let’s hear it for “hope” and “change.”)

= = =

Everyone I know who’s voting for Obama – at least, everyone over 30 – has
health insurance, and lucky for them. In the CNN debate on January 31, Obama claimed
that his health care plan and Clinton’s were “95%” the same. The Nation, in its
endorsement of Obama (Feb. 18, p.20), claimed his plan was only “marginally less
progressive” than Clinton’s. I doubt any of The Nation’s editors lack health insurance,
and lucky for them too – if Obama is elected.

The major difference in the two plans is that, for adults, Clinton’s is mandatory and
Obama’s is not.

Paul Krugman, The New York Times, Feb. 4, p.23: “Mr. Obama claims
that people will buy insurance if it becomes affordable. Unfortunately, the evidence says
otherwise.” Krugman cites a recent M.I.T study, “a detailed analysis of health care
decisions,” which “finds that a plan without mandates, broadly resembling the Obama
plan, would cover 23 million of [the 45 million] currently uninsured, at a taxpayer cost of
$102 billion a year. An otherwise identical plan with mandates [my italics] would cover
45 million of the uninsured… at a taxpayer cost of $124 billion… one plan [Clinton’s]
achieves more or less universal coverage; the other [Obama’s], although it costs more
than 80% as much, covers only about half those currently uninsured.”

[microworlds.livejournal.com]

BRAIN ENO

i hope he's wrong too.

[bandslag1.livejournal.com]

I campaigned for this man in San Francisco; he is the most inspiring speaker I've ever heard.

[niemandsrose.livejournal.com]

I've felt the same as Eno for, oh, the last two years maybe: that whoever gets in next is going to be crucified for not being able to fix this mess in their first hundred days in office. I actually think that would be a waste of an Obama. Honestly, I wasn't supporting his run this year because I really REALLY wanted him to run in another four or eight or twelve years, when he'd be a senior senator...

In sum, I think it's too soon for this once-in-a-generation dreamboat. But not because we're "not ready".

Richer, more educated, weedle weedle

[19091977.livejournal.com]

You are such a turd. Europe can have Obama & stuff him up their collectivist bottom.

[desant012.livejournal.com]

The European Union isn't a nation. Do you even understand culture in Europe? I think you're floating way too high above the fray to really get everything that's going on.

[(Anonymous)]

Or rather, I'm sure you understand, but you're trying to get a rise out of people by twisting the information. Which is rather hacky.

[niddrie-edge.livejournal.com]

Don't Eno's eyes follow you around the room?

[mrobot.livejournal.com]

do you mean to imply that leftism is necessarily correlated with higher education

[desant012.livejournal.com]

Obama is inspiring, etc. etc., and I'll probably vote for him in the election (unless Hillary is able to get the nomination through lawyers).

When you get down to it, though, he would be pretty inappropriate for the EU, and there's a lot I take issue on with him. Obama is incredibly anti-regulation, in line with all 21st century US political candidates, which means he'll probably be ineffective in dealing with gross abuses of power that investment banks, corporations, etc., get away with, all of which have led us down this current economic crisis (and the lumbering, economic crisis that nobody ever talks about). Of course the EU is pretty ineffective, too, considering it has sovereign nations battling for power + independent financial and economic powers fighting, too.

Scratch Obama and you get a lot of the same old center-right policies bought by the investment banks and international corporations. It's weird that the UK and the EU have taken so much interest in him, butttt, after Bush that's not so surprising. He has a chance at winning considering Republicans despise Republicans at this point.

In terms of political climate, there is no comparable era ... Bush is officially the least popular, most hated president in American history.

[count-vronsky.livejournal.com]

Taking Tiger Mountain (http://www.morningsun.org/multimedia/index.html#)By Strategy (http://www.morningsun.org/living/movies/feature_films.html#)

[count-vronsky.livejournal.com]

taking tiger mountain

[stanleylieber.livejournal.com]

obama's clothing does not work for me

expanding

[rinusvanalebeek.livejournal.com]

The next President of the United States of Europe!...

I'd give the next presdident
of the United States of America and Africa
a better chance.

I mean Change.
Here's a real challenge.

greetings from the united states of Berlin,

[(Anonymous)]

Obama will win by at least a margin of 40 states to 10.

Contrary to the media's interpretation, this is not a "change election," but--like every other election--a "charisma election".

This is how Bush won in 2004 despite the entire country knowing he was a moron and that Iraq had no WMD.

Obama is far and away the most charismatic candidate. He seems genuine and speaks in a folksy way.

John McCain is incompetent. His main selling point is his strength on the Iraq issue, and he doesn't know the difference between Sunni and Shia. But again, incompetence doesn't matter. Only charisma. And he has none. He always seems uncomfortable--and when he's grilled by reporters he has trouble keeping his cool.

The forthcoming result is clear as day.

Carter vs Reagan: President as mascot or ju-ju

[(Anonymous)]

When people dropped belt-tightening Carter in favour of Reagan they kept saying "Reagan shoots from the hip" i.e. we don't WANT a clever president explaining taxation issues, we want someone who shrugs off problems and lays down the law (with Brylcreem to remind us of better days).

[fireflesh.livejournal.com]

Eno is totally out of his depth here.

I hate Obama--but from this stateside perspective (half Appalachia, half NYC), I think he has this one pinned down. It's his oratory. Everyone wants to listen to that booming, dulcet sound--with, might I add, complete disregard for the words therein.

yeah, right

[(Anonymous)]

Brian Eno, who used to be my hero until he described a nerd as "a human being without enough Africa in him" (the most back-handedly racist comment I think I've ever heard in my life), and Momus, whose unabashed orientalism would make Edward Said cry, both think they could handle Barak Obama as president of the EU?

That's a prime example of, as we say in America, writing a check that your ass can't cash.

I love this blog, and I love Momus; don't get me wrong. But after having spent several years as a black American female expat in Europe, I know better than to buy stock in your purported commitment to "racial equality".

Re: yeah, right

[(Anonymous)]

I hate Brian Eno. The sooner his whole tedious generation and their influence on music and art is dead and cremated the better. What makes Brian Peter George St. John le Baptiste de la Salle Eno feel he is not rootsy enough? And is that feeling helping his work or not? And why does he have to go to Africa to reconnect? It's colonialism with panpipes and a Macbook.

HILARY FOR PRESIDENT!

[thomascott.livejournal.com]

Frankly the topic of the U.S. election causes me to glaze over at this point but here goes....
Eno - taking time out from slicking Coldplay's next dreary offering - is hardly being insightful here.
Obama will lose - not because the U.S. doesn't deserve him - but rather on account of Clinton's ongoing mud-slinging.
All this Democratic infighting is serving the Republicans well and it will only take a final brief employment of their stock dirty-tricks campaigning and culture-of-fear phantasm-raising to secure McCain the presidency.

I would very much like to see Obama win of course, but in terms of what America 'deserves' let them have Clinton:
a Republican in Democrat clothing, ruthless with ambition, happy to indulge in a diplomatic patois of nation-obliteration and also to no doubt continue her husband's policy of pursuing a neo-liberalist economic policy that Reagan would have been proud of.
Her win would secure the U.S. a Republican presidency and would appease Europeans desire to see a Democrat in the White House.