The magic is over

[imomus]

It was the week the dollar fell to less than the value of this Japanese cupro-nickel coin and to its lowest-ever exchange rate against the euro, the week that gold rose for the first time ever to $1000 an ounce, the week that the foreign minister of France's most pro-American government in years made a speech in which he declared that, whoever succeeds Bush, for America "the magic is over... it will never be as it was before".

As the sub-prime crisis continued to sap confidence in American financial products, it was also the week when the head of the Middle Eastern operations section of the world's most powerful army was forced to resign after telling Esquire magazine he was at odds with the administration over the use of force against Iran. The administration was quick to say that Fallon's departure didn't mean that military action against Iran was pending, but the Cheney wing of the Republicans might see it as an election-year fillip to their own party, which always seems to benefit from war. Meanwhile, Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister, noted that American military supremacy endures. And even anti-war Fallon told Esquire that Iran presented no threat to the US: "These guys are ants. When the time comes, you crush them." Fallon's view that that time hadn't yet come was supported by pretty much everyone in the world, according to a BBC poll, except in Israel, where support for sanctions and military action against Iran is growing.

But if the US military hegemony established in the postwar period endures (there are still US military bases in 36 countries worldwide, including Britain, Germany and Japan, but no British, German or Japanese bases in the US), there's been a shrinking of US interest in the rest of the world. An article in the London Review of Books told us that "in 1970 CBS had three full-time correspondents in Rome alone: by 2006, the entire US media, print and broadcast, was supporting only 141 foreign correspondents to cover the whole world". Meanwhile, one Arizona town planned to dig a moat around itself to keep immigrants out.

The week the question of whether English-speaking nations can really be said to define modernity any more ricocheted around Click Opera like a tennis ball called "out" by the umpire was also the week when Martina Navratilova declared she no longer wanted to live in the US and was returning to Czechoslovakia. The Guardian ran a feature asking Can the US today really compare with Czechoslovakia in 1975? The answer was that life in the twilight of Iron Curtain communism was in some ways preferable to life in today's America (the communists had free healthcare, full employment, and economic growth). Navratilova, who defected from Czechoslovakia, declared herself as ashamed of George Bush's America as she'd once been of the communist regime in her homeland. "The thing is, we elected Bush," she said. "That is worse!"



Samantha Power, a foreign policy advisor to the Obama campaign, told Isabel Hilton on Radio 3's Nightwaves that even her boss wasn't magic: even if he won the Democratic ticket and the presidential election, he would face a huge struggle against vested interests to reverse the damage done in the last eight years to the American image and infrastructure. A couple of days later the smart-but-too-frank Ms Power was fired for telling The Scotsman that Hillary Clinton "is a monster".

But if Kouchner's right and the magic really is over -- if the US can no longer enchant the rest of the world by incarnating enlightened modernity, prosperity, Pied Piper trips to the moon and beyond, and if its financial sector continues to melt down -- a time of temper tantrums, bloodletting and killing sprees is unfortunately probably at hand. It may be that only scary monsters will be called to rule America, or that anyone who takes the failing nation's helm will have to become a scary monster, or get putsched out of power. It's become the nature of the beast, and it'll take some very strong magic indeed to change it.

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

You're overcalling it massively here. We've been down this road several times before. In the seventies during the oil crisis, the U.S. was said to be in terminal decline. In the recession of the early nineties, likewise. Then, there was a huge amount of paranoia that in a matter of years, Japan would overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy. It was a time when French prime minister Edith Cresson could talk of the Japanese as "yellow ants trying to take over the world and screw us all". How long ago that seems now... In the nineties the internet happened, and it wasn't the Japanese or the Chinese who mainly drove its development, it was the Silicon Valley, it was Google, Yahoo, Apple, Microsoft, Cisco etc...

As for America losing interest in the rest of the world, it may well be true but your example is a poor one. The shrinkage of foreign correspondents and offices is not an American phenomenon but a global one. You'll find that the BBC, the Times, the Guardian etc etc also have far fewer offices and correspondents around the world than they did 30 years ago (part of the reason is that they increasingly outsource that stuff, buying packages from Reuters, AP, etc.).

As for Kouchner's words of wisdom, it's naive to take them at face value. You've got to ask what is in the interests of France today. Is it a strong America, or a more multi-polar world? There's a reason Kouchner is talking down America at this stage of the game.

[cerulicante.livejournal.com]

He gets a boner every time something bad happens to America. Don't ruin it for him.

[(Anonymous)]

Completely off topic (i haven't time to read just now), i just wanted to forward my thanks to Momus for introducing me to Abraham Maslow and his hierachy of needs:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs

knowledge of which reached me at an opportune moment. My Thanks.

[imomus.livejournal.com]

Well, you're right about the internet being a sort of strong magic which reversed US decline in the 90s. Living in Paris in 1996, I became convinced that the US was the future, and moved there... Just in time for the dot com crash, 9/11 and the Bushco coup.

I'd be interested to know what strong magic you see saving the US this time. Or perhaps you'd agree with me that multipolarity is no bad thing.

[imomus.livejournal.com]

You're welcome!

To bring it back on-topic, Maslow (an American) got this idea from Martin Buber (a European).

[(Anonymous)]

I certainly agree that multipolarity is a good thing. I wasn't making a value judgement, I was pointing out that every time an economy teeters on the edge of a recession, there's a lot of existential handwringing about it being the end of the world as we know it.

It's clear that America doesn't dominate the world economy in quite the same way it did in the postwar years. But America as a dominant cultural, political and economic force is not going away any time soon - it's wishful thinking to imagine otherwise. I don't know what 'strong magic' will 'save' America next time around. But I strongly suspect that the U.S. will be at the forefront of whatever are the next technological advances and corporate/capitalist evolutions. I think you have to put the disaster of the Bush years into some perspective. Iraq has been a catastrophe that will take some getting out of - but are things really as bad as they were in the mid-seventies, with the oil crisis, the humiliating end of 16 years in Vietnam with 50,000 Americans killed, stagflation, Watergate, urban decline, etc etc...

[(Anonymous)]

Living in Paris in 1996, I became convinced that the US was the future, and moved there... Just in time for the dot com crash, 9/11 and the Bushco coup.

Such are Momus's powers of prophecy! Now that you think the US is the past, I'll wager we're on the brink of a new American golden age.

[(Anonymous)]

STOP PRESS +++ AMERICA IN TERMIAL DECLINE +++ OMG!!11!!! +++

der.

Coughing all night long

[(Anonymous)]

I was reading your Face the Wrong Way interview, and was surprised to hear you say that you may have finished with your music projects. I always saw you as being locked up in the Tower of Song.

Plus, are you going to see Leonard Cohen on his European tour?

[imomus.livejournal.com]

Going TERMIAL is much more benign in nations unlikely to go POSTAL or THERMIAL and try to take the whole world CONFLAGRATIONAL and REVELATIAL down with them.

That was to der. On the tower of song point, the problem is that my ears are kinda fucked -- sustained volume makes them hot and screamy and makes me dizzy. It's like a kind of Ludovico's Treatment, and it deters me from making music. Which isn't to say I won't.

[iamrighthere.livejournal.com]

America has gone down this road before. That said, it is hubris to assume that problems today are mere bumps in that road and that the US will soon rise to its former prosperity and shine as a beacon of hope for the world by virtue of electing a black man or a white woman as president.

While economic pundits opine on the economic slowdown turning around eventually, I wonder about why the word "growth" always enters into the picture. In a time when we should be looking at sustainability, the powers that be push the bigger, the shinier, the more-is-better mantra. And for a while that may bring America up economically.

In time, though, we will come to understand that the invasion of Iraq and the saber-rattling against Iran are about oil. Or, rather, Peak Oil. That's not news, really, but most Americans don't realize that their way of life, and the way of life for other oil-dependent nations--is going to decline no matter how many oil-soaked sands see US Army footprints. Bush--oil man that he is--knows that world oil production has peaked. From a purely pragmatic standpoint, he's simply trying to collect as many toys as possible on his side of the sandbox. Morally, however, he is bankrupt and has bankrupted our country--economically and spiritually--by failing to tell us the truth: That in 20 years if not sooner we will not have gas for our cars or petrochemicals, and the 100-year party we have enjoyed from having them around will be over.

Wiki has a thorough rundown about Peak Oil. I'd be interested on your thoughts about this subject.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

[mcgazz.livejournal.com]

What I enjoy more is the inevitable condescending responses and capitalist apologetics from bellicose, Marlboro Men republicans. I've never worked out why Momus has so many hard-boiled, all-a-merkin types among his fanbase.

[zenicurean.livejournal.com]

Rather off topic, but I have to add this: Foretelling doom in the USA is particularly popular now, not only because there is a world of reasons to do so, but because it's that kind of a year. This leads to all sorts of strange pablum being tossed around the halls of power. (Even though the Empire and its purported designs to take candy away from all the babies in the world are certainly not going anywhere any time soon.)

The American political engine, always geared toward the great natural aims of bread and circuses, is in election time mode. The credit crunch and its echoes on the market have certainly been a bad thing for all concerned, but the rhetoric right now isn't only about that, or the ridiculous cost of war, or health care, the failures of American military and foreign policy, or even the soaring-yet-still-manageable federal debt.

The rhetoric is also frequently that there is a strong recession coming (which is true), that bad policy has contributed to it (which is also true), and that any such recession would constitute the Absolute Sign of the End Times (which is untrue)... and, of course, that Enlightened Policy delivered by Our Party of Choice can still prevent it and all downturns like it, forever and ever, amen (which is ludicrous).

And extraordinarily good example would be the recent bipartisan Congressional stimulus package. Its effects will generally not change an iota about what is right or wrong about America's fundamental economic blue print, or soften the tilt in any constructive or cost-free manner, but it will create enough buzz and movement to make it look as if the Congress is doing something bold and daring.

[kumakouji.livejournal.com]

I'm not an economist so it's very hard for me to give a credible opinion on the credit-crunch we're currently seeing in the United States.

All I know is, in regards to Britain's economy, according to the 2008 budget, the British economy will this year grow from between 1.75% and 2.25%, down from 3% last year. In regards to Americas economy, American economy will grow between 1.8% and 2.5%. That's not a "crisis", unless I'm missing something. It's still growing, just slowly.

When we start to see actual recession, then we should call it a crisis, but at the moment it's just slowing growth we need to keep a very close eye on.

"Meanwhile, one Arizona town planned to dig a moat around itself to keep immigrants out."

You missed out a very important word from that sentence -- Illegal.

"The Guardian ran a feature asking Can the US today really compare with Czechoslovakia in 1975?"

From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Communist_Czechoslovakia#1970s):

"During the Sixth Five-Year Plan (1976-80) economic performance was far less satisfactory; in the closing years of the period, the slowdown in economic growth became especially noticeable. Net material product grew by only 3.7 % yearly on average, instead of the 4.9 % called for by the plan. Both agriculture and industry and productivity increase failed to meet planned growth targets. During the plan period, growth rates in personal consumption declined, reaching a low point of 0.5 % in 1979. given the considerable funding poured into the economy, the mediocre condition of the Czechoslovak industrial plant in general at the end of the 1970s must have been discouraging to economic planners.

The energy and trade problems Czechoslovakia faced in the late 1970s were also major factors in the slowdown in industrial growth. The terms on which Czechoslovakia conducted foreign trade had begun to deteriorate sharply by the mid-1970s."


Also (and this is the kicker):


"The mass media in Communist Czechoslovakia was controlled by the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia (KSČ) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_media_in_Communist_Czechoslovakia). "

So basically, an utterly mediocre economy during the 70s, with government gagging and oppression on top of that. but yeah, FUCK BUSH, right?


I also wanna take this opportunity to digress slightly say that relying on any one news source for information about the world is dangerous. The Guardian has just as much of a political agenda as The Daily Mail, and even if it's a political agenda you generally agree with, all you've ever going to be doing is reaffirming your alignment rather than being challenged to think -- you should all be reading varying sources with different political leanings.

A couple of days later the smart-but-too-frank Ms Power was fired for telling The Scotsman that Hillary Clinton "is a monster".

Hillary isn't a monster and Samantha wasn't "smart" for saying that -- if it's a race between Clinton and McCain I know who I'd be voting for. Mud-slinging shouldn't be allowed or encouraged in politics, especially not now when it could damage the chances of the Democrats getting into power.

" a time of temper tantrums, bloodletting and killing sprees is unfortunately probably at hand."




You just completely ruined a half-credible political entry.

[kumakouji.livejournal.com]

"The rhetoric is also frequently that there is a strong recession coming (which is true)"

*raises eyebrow*

Some of the best economists in the world can't tell us with any real certainty if the United states is due a recession. Do you know something the rest of us don't?

[imomus.livejournal.com]

Shopping in AmeriKKa! (http://imomus.com/amerikkaphoto.html)

[zenicurean.livejournal.com]

I'll admit this part is mostly a hunch based on the scenario that Europe and possibly Japan will also experience a period of cough and sputter.

[imomus.livejournal.com]

My affliction is nothing like as serious as poor Ayumi Hamasaki's, though. At the age of just 29 she has already gone deaf in one ear (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-01/06/content_7372367.htm), and it's inoperable. She intends to continue singing, despite bad tinnitus and the flatness that this kind of deafness brings -- as reported by Nick Coleman (http://lifeandhealth.guardian.co.uk/health/story/0,,2257927,00.html), a music critic similarly afflicted.

tantrums, bloodletting and killing sprees

[pay-option07.livejournal.com]

It is unfortunate that health care doesn't materialize in all the richest counties that could become an example for socialist dictatorships to explore more democratic models of administration rather than with threats


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljbI-363A2Q

[eclectiktronik.livejournal.com]

This is just another part of the cyclical boom-slump-crisis nature of capitalism. To be expected in a country dominated by a military-industrial complex and its agenda: decisions about investment and production are made by thousands of competing companies operating without social control or regulation. This competition to accumulate capital makes companies expand production like there were no tomorrow or no limit to the available market for what they're producing. so you have the anarchy of the market determining growth, instea d of a coherent plan...so you get overproduction of commodities with goods piling up unsold and companies have to cut back on production. And soon you get the whole thing over again - boom-slump-crisis.... these guys said it all! :

No intervention by governments under capitalism, however sincere, has prevented or can prevent this cycle from operating. History has shown this to have been the story of capitalism ever since it first developed; the cycle shows the impotence of reformers and politicians in the face of global capital. To me it is the ultimate dictatorship run by unelected, unrepresentative powers. And the misery for millions of workers who lose their jobs, go bankrupt, have their wages reduced and have their working conditions worsened. Say what you like about communism, one day we need to wake up and realise that capitalism just does not work.

so there ;-P

[(Anonymous)]

Going TERMIAL is much more benign in nations unlikely to go POSTAL or THERMIAL and try to take the whole world CONFLAGRATIONAL and REVELATIAL down with them.

That's true, I'm a bit worried about Pakistan as well.

I've wondered before whether your `music is dead' / anti-rockist spiel is not simply a symptom of hearing loss.

der.

[imomus.livejournal.com]

I'm totally in agreement. The "hidden hand" needs to be balanced by another hand, the guiding hand of state control. Nice to see nationalization making a comeback (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7249575.stm) in the UK, though. I always knew Gordon "Stalin" Brown wouldn't let us old lefties down!

[eclectiktronik.livejournal.com]

Hmm, good news, maybe heralds the arrival of a 'new New Labour'?!
Though in his autobiography/diaries, Tony Benn (for my money the one of he very few socialists in the Labour party, who refused to bow down to the market) was pretty critical of Brown, so we shall see...

[kumakouji.livejournal.com]

there's a K missing.

[eclectiktronik.livejournal.com]

sorry, re: Brown, forgot this. go to the 1 minute mark: